Overplaying the Eight

One of the most common mistakes I see in Seven-Card Stud High-Low, is overplaying 8-high low-hands. Many players raise the moment they make any kind of low-hand, even if it's on the river, and cold-call raises with a draw to any kind of low-hand, even if its an 8-high.

The problem is that the 8 is actually one of the deadliest cards you can hold, because an 8-high is the worse possible low-hand. Remember, that a low of 8, 4, 3, 2, A, loses the low-pot to 7, 6, 5, 4, 2, because low-hands are ranked by the highest card, not the lowest.

I once saw a player river an 8-high low-hand and fire an immediate raise. He was promptly called and scooped by an opponent with a 7-high low-hand and an exposed pair of 3s for high. The raiser could not beat the board for high, and yet raised on the basis a weak low-hand.

A river raise will hardly ever move a bettor off a hand in Seven-Card Stud High-Low. In fact, you will show more hands at the end then just about any other form of poker. Most players who bet until the end have something going for at least one-half of the pot. Remember, it is a fixed-limit game with pots that can grow very large by the end. With only one bet to call at the end, players with any kind of chance for any half of the pot usually pay to see the raiser's holdings. Many players with a small pair such as 3s, will call if they can beat the board for high, even if they miss a low-hand. The call often works because if multiple players are competing for low-hands only, it is not uncommon for a small pair, or even A-K, to take the high-pot at the end.

Because hands with an 8 qualify for low, many players automatically play them aggressively and often set themselves up for disaster. In one hand, I bet out a 7-5 low-hand on Fifth Street and was promptly raised by an opponent with an 8, 7, 5, showing on the board. Knowing it would be difficult for her to better my low-hand, I re-raised and ended up scooping the entire pot when at the end, I completed a 7-high straight.

In another hand my opponent was luckier. I had completed a 9-high straight on Fifth Street, and my opponent, who had an 8, 6, 10 exposed, cold-called my two-bet raise to draw to an 8-high low. On Sixth Street I picked up the 4 to make it 6 sequential cards, while my opponent hit a King and kept calling. He saved half the pot on the end when I caught a Queen that failed to improve my 8-7 low-hand and he picked up a 2 to complete an 8-6 low-hand. He got his money back, but calling all those raises in order to draw to second-worse low-hand that you can have, (the 8-high straight I held is the worse) will not win over the long-run.

The pitfalls of 8s, means that many of the so-called "Razz hands," such as starting cards of 8, 2, 3, or 8, 7, 3, or even 8, 2, A, should not be played. These hands are playable in Razz because the lowest hand takes the entire pot with no qualifier necessary. But, in Seven-Card Stud High-Low these cards are competing for one-half the pot, and are often second best for that half of the pot. If you play low starting cards, the cards should have some possibility of "connecting," that is complete a low straight, and rank better than an 8-high for the low-hand.

Probabilities for Simultaneous High and Low-Draws: Weighted Outs

The big-money hands in Seven-Card Stud High-Low are the low straights and low flushes. These hands often scoop and better yet, usually get paid. Any player with at least two-pair will pay if the pot is large, because it is not possible to know for certain that the hand qualifies for low, let alone know that it is a straight or flush.

However, if you start with connected or suited cards, and then pick up a helpful card on Fourth Street, you still do not have a winning hand. Here is a summary of the outs available to complete the low-hand, high-hand, or both for some common Fifth Street-draws. For these tabulations I will introduce the concept of "weighted outs". In many cases the total number of outs to make a high-hand, low-hand, or both, are the same. But some circumstances are more favorable than others, because the numbers of outs that can make both a high-hand and a low-hand are greater than the number that make high-hand only or low-hand only.

To reflect this discrepancy, I define a "weighted out" as equal to 1 if the out completes a high-hand and a low-hand, and one-half (0.5) if the out completes a high-hand or a low-hand. Totaling "weighted outs" is a better measure of your actual equity in the pot. For example, if you have seen 16 cards after Fourth Street, there are 36 unseen cards. If your total weighted outs are 12, you have 33% equity in the pot. Some of the outs might result in winning only half the pot, and some the entire pot, but on average you can expect to pick up 33% of the money on the table if the scenario is repeated many times.

Here are the tabulations:

Open-ended straight-flush with low-draw

Example: 3, 4, 5, 6 all in Spades

Improve to:	Outs	Weighted Outs
Straight-Flush	2	2
Straight	6	6
Low-flush	2	2
High-flush	5	2.5
Low-hand	6	3
Totals	21	15.5

Four-flush with inside straight and low-draw

Example: A, 3, 4, 5 all in Hearts

Improve to:	Outs	Weighted Outs
Straight-Flush	1	1
Straight	3	3
Low-flush	3	3
High-flush	5	2.5
Low-hand	9	4.5
Totals	21	14

Four-flush with low-draw

Example: A, 3, 5, 6 in Hearts

Improve to:	Outs	Weighted Outs
Low-flush	4	4
High-flush	5	2.5
Low-hand	12	6
Totals	21	12.5

Open-ended straight with low-draw

Example: 3, 4, 5, 6 rainbow

Improve to:	Outs	Weighted Outs
Straight	8	8
Low-hand	8	4
Totals	16	12

Inside straight with low-draw

Example: 3, 4, 6, 7 rainbow

Improve to:	Outs	Weighted Outs
Straight	4	4
Low-hand	12	6
Totals	16	10

All of these tabulations count the maximum number of outs possible, which only occurs when the draw is completely live. It is rare that a Fifth Street draw, in which 10 to 15 cards are already exposed, would be completely live. That is why counting weighted outs on the later streets is so important. Consider the most favorable draw-an open-ended straight-flush with low-draw. If the 6 outs to a low-hand are missing, the weighted outs drop by 3 to a total of 12.5. But, if the 6 outs for the straight are missing, the total weighted outs drops by 6 to 9.5.

The tabulations above are still valid on later streets. In all likelihood there would be fewer unseen cards on later streets, but more missing outs. As is usually the case in Seven-Card Stud High-Low, pot equity can change drastically from street-to-street as cards are exposed.

Cold-Calling a Blocking-Raise with a Low-Draw: Scenario 2

Last week, I analyzed a tactic in Seven-Card Stud High-Low Poker I call a "blocking-raise," in which a player with a made low-hand on Fifth or Sixth Street, raises a bet from a high-hand to force out a player on a draw to a better low. The issue is whether it is correct for the player on a draw to cold-call the raise. Analysis showed that if a scoop is possible for the player on a draw, cold-calling does gain equity. The amount of equity depends on the number of outs that are still live. But what happens if no scoop is possible?

Consider a second scenario:

After Fifth Street you are in a three-way pot with the following (hole cards are in parenthesis):

You (A, 2) 6, 7, J
Bob (x, x) 3, 4, 8
Alice (x, x) K, 9, J

Action: Alice leads with a $2 bet; Bob raises to $4. It is your turn to act.

Again for computational purposes we will assume a $1-2 game with eight players dealt into the hand.

Total seen cards = 16 (Eleven that you are looking at, plus five mucked door cards).
Total unseen cards = 36.

A scoop is less likely in this case because you cannot complete a straight. Your only hope to scoop is to pair the Ace and hope it holds up against the high-hand. If your hand is completely live, your outs to make low-hand are as follows:

Outs to make a 7-high low=10 (three 3s, plus three 4s, plus four 5s)
Outs to make an 8-high low = 3 (three 8s)

Again we can divide the number of outs by 36 to arrive at Sixth Street probabilities. Your chances on Sixth Street of having a:

7-high low = 28%
8-high low = 8.3%

Again we can approximate your equity in the pot by making the following assumptions:

A 7-high will win the low-pot.
An 8-high will win the low-pot about half of the time.

Then if (P) represents the pot-size, and (E) represents the equity in the pot, then under these assumptions:

E = (0.28)P/2 + (0.083)P/4 = (0.16)P

Because you are on a draw for only one-half the pot, your equity is only one-sixth of its value. To break-even on this play you need a pot-size of about $24. Unless there was a great deal of prior action on the early streets in the hand, it is unlikely that the pot is that large. It is also unlikely that your low-draw is completely live if Bob already has a low-hand. In this scenario, without a possibility of a scoop, it is best to fold to the raise.

Cold-Calling a Blocking-Raise with a Low-Draw: Scenario 1

A tactic, that Seven-Card Stud High-Low (Stud-Eight) players frequently encounter, is what I call a “blocking-raise.” This is a raise intended to force out a player on a low-draw. Usually, a player who has just made a low-hand, and wants to force out a player drawing to a better low, executes this kind of raise. Blocking-raises occur most often on Fifth or Sixth Streets, when a player has completed a weak low—such as an 8-high—and wants to force out a player showing two undercards, but no other low-cards. Any player, with only two exposed low-cards, cannot have a low-hand until the river. In this post, I will analyze a scenario to determine if cold-calling a blocking-raise is a correct response. As is usually the case in high-low poker, whether or not a scoop is possible, has large effect on the expected value for a play.

For these computations, I will assume a $1-2 game with eight players dealt into the hand. Hole cards are in parentheses.

After Fifth Street you are in a three-way pot with the following:

You (2, 3) 4, 5, J
Bob (x, x) 3, 4, 8
Alice (x, x) K, 9, J

Action: Alice leads with a $2 bet; Bob raises to $4. It is your turn to act.
Total seen cards = 16 (Eleven that you are looking at, plus five mucked door cards).
Total unseen cards = 36.

If your hand is completely live, your outs are as follows:

Outs to make a straight=8 (four As plus four 6s)
Outs to make a better low = 4 (four 7s)
Outs to make comparable low = 3 (three 8s)

That means we can divide the number of outs by 36 to arrive at Sixth Street probabilities. Your chances on Sixth Street of having a:

Straight = 22%
7-high low = 11%
8-high low = 8.3%

We can approximate your equity in the pot by making the following assumptions:

A straight will scoop.
A 7-high will win the low-pot.
An 8-high will win the low-pot about half of the time.

Then if (P) represents the pot-size, and (E) represents the equity in the pot, then under these assumptions:

E = (0.22)P + (0.11)P/2 + (0.083)P/4 = (0.296)P

You expect about 30% equity in the total pot after the action is completed. If you cold-call the $4-raise and Alice closes the action with a call, the total pot-size needs to be at least $13 for your equity to equal the $4 call. We know that the antes and Fifth Street action alone is equal to $13. If there was any prior action on Third and Fourth Streets, the pot is larger than $13. Cold-calling the raise is a profitable response. Not only is the current pot-size large enough, but also the implied pot-size from action on Sixth and Seventh Streets is greater still. And you get a second chance to make the hand if you miss on Sixth Street. Depending on the exposed Sixth Street cards, a cold-call might still be favorable.

However, it is rare that your hand is completely live. The kinds of missing outs make a big difference in your pot-equity. If the 7s and 8s are dead, but the straight draw is live, your pot-equity falls to 22%. That means you need to take down an $18 pot to make a $4 investment worth it. But, if your straight-draw has missing outs, your pot-equity is considerably reduced. Suppose you only have four outs left for your straight, but the 7s and 8s are live. Now your pot-equity is 18.5%. You need a pot in excess of $21 to break-even. That could be a stretch. You might only get that kind of action if the high-hand can beat a low straight, in which case you have only half the equity that you thought you did.

Also keep in mind, that if Alice jams you, that is not close the action by calling, she might be unafraid of a low straight because she can already beat one. The kind of player Alice is has a big effect on your equity. Some players with high-hands are timid in response to a possible low-hand because they are afraid of being freerolled. These players will call the low-hand down, unless they can beat a low straight, in which case they will raise. Other players are more afraid of giving free cards than being freerolled, and will jam anyone raising with a low-cards, even if all they have is one or two pair. In that case your scoop possibility is still live.

Next week we’ll look at a scenario in which scooping is not a possibility.